2002 - 2003 Forecast & Rainfall Data (below)

Gambel and Scaled Quail:
      There is no good news to report for desert quail in the State of Arizona because the bird population for these two species have experienced a dramatic set back due to the severe drought that we now are experiencing in the state of Arizona. However, there are poor to fair population in certain areas of the state that received fair amounts of timely rains.

Mearns Quail:
    
This is not going to be a fun season for hunters interested in this bird or for the local businesses depending on the Mearns quail hunters this winter. The bird simply is not be found in any appreciable numbers in most of its range, at least in huntable canyons. The true effects of the exceptional high harvest of the the last two seasons (2000-2001) finally took its dangerous toll on the Mearns quail. Our prediction for 2001 was that the harvest was going to tumble 50%, which it did, and we once again predict the harvest for Mearns quail in 2002 will tumble another 50% from 2001. This means that the bird population will drop 75% overall in just two years.

Years

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000
2001

2002

Harvest

21,772

33,068

43,101

27,482

18,769

20,055

16,313

21,992

14,300

29,200
69,429

38,556

19,000 (??)

Number of Hunters

4126

4726

5582

3595

4003

2668

4132

4656

4314

6690
8511

5740

(??)


     The present reality is that the Mearns quail is only to be found in those areas in which by virtue of hunting difficulty or just plain luck, managed to escape the excessive hunting pressure of the last two seasons. Some traditional canyons, like Hog and Gardner for example, simply have few Mearns to be found. We are basing our impression of this season not on the birds actually found, which were low in numbers, but more on the lack of  'scratch areas' that we always base our predictions on also.
   
    For those individuals who would want to explain the present lack of birds on the present drought, may I remind the reader that fair amount of rain did occur in Mearns quail country this year. We also recommend the reader to see the following Rainfall-Harvest Chart which clearly shows that rainfall is not (unlike desert quail species) the principal factor in the Mearns quail population - within reason. For those that believe that habitat is the primary factor, well the habitat in Merans quail country has never looked better for the last four seasons. In fact, many areas will be better served being grazed down to a 50% level this coming year to stimulate growth of the Mearns quail primary food sources.

   For the real warning to what was going to happen this season, you only need to consider the ghastly numbers of  the After-Season Field Survey the AFGD conducted after this past season to know we were headed for this disaster.

   On the positive side, we trust that our efforts, combined with your participation, will prevent this whole tragedy to this noble bird from happening in the future. There are many positive signs now that even the most vocal opposition to our efforts for change are finally coming to the realization that this bird merits special conbsideration and protection. Addedly, sometimes man has to loose something to appreciate what it had in the first place. We believe that many individuals now do appreciate this bird more than ever, the hunting recreation he offers and its true economic importance.

    We wish you the best this season has to offer and please take the time to read the new Hunting Guidelines that lists just some of the things we hunters can do to help this bird come back in the coming seasons.


2001 - 2002 Forecast & Rainfall Data (below)

 Gambel Quail:
     Arizona Game & Fish biologists are cautiously optimistic when they predict that this could be a solid year for the resilient Gambel quail, but they caution that this bird started from a five-year low from the outset. The call counts near Oracle Junction rate with the best of years (1978-1980) .  Populations in higher elevations, such as above Black Canyon City and well into the Cordes Junction area,  already show third hatches taking place as of this writing.     The southwestern area of the state also shows a good to excellent numbers of Gambel quail.

Scaled Quail:
    This bird is at an all-time low in most areas of the state and undoubtedly the Arizona Game & Fish Department is watching this bird closely and dedicating special attention to it.   In actuality, many areas in the southeastern quarter of the state had decent populations even last Fall,  which may help them to bounce back to huntable numbers where there was a decent brood population to start with.  Overall, it looks like another spotty year for the Scaled quail throughout Arizona.
Acces to many good areas is the main problem
.     New Mexico is getting excellent rain in many traditional Scaled quail areas.


Mearns Quail:
     The real effects of the exceedingly high harvest of this bird in the 2000 season, for all the reasons covered in another page in this web site, will be known soon enough.  We suspect  that this bird will have to come from behind somewhat this season in the traditional areas, when in reality he should have had another banner year. The Arivacas had a very poor hatch last season, a low rainfall being the primary reason, but the Arivacas have gotten rain this year.      Fortunately, the rainfall thus far in the Mearns range this summer, compares favorably with that of last year.  We will be updating the chart below as the rainfall data comes in to us from numerous specific locations.
    Keep in mind that the rainfall amounts during the months of July, August and into September are the most crucial for the Mearns quail to pull off a successful hatch.




                                                                                   Rainfall Data (Nogales, AZ)

  January February March April May June July August September October November December
2002
.45
.70
.00
.00
.00
.00
3.61
5.30
-
-
-
-
2001
2.70
.60
.60
2.65
.25
1.25
5.85

   8.37

1.19
1.34
.02
1.93
2000
.10
1.00
4.00
.00
.00
3.00
4.00
6.70
1.00
9.90
2.25
0
1999
0
0
.10
1.90
0
1.10
12.50
6.80
6.25
0
0
0
Normal
1.15
.90
.92
.36
.24
.50
4.46
4.20
1.59
1.42
.68
1.46

 

                                                                                     Arivacas (Ruby)

  January February March April May June July August September October November December
2001
1.90
.86
1.40
2.11
.05
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
2000
.00
.13
.99
.00
.00
1.55
3.58
6.52
.00
8.73
.00
.00
1999
.02
.00
.30
1.72
.00
.00
7.44
3.22
.73
.00
.00
.00
Normal
1.31
1.38
1.10
.38
.16
.29
3.61
3.45
1.83
1.22
.89
1.88


                                                                                           Canelo Mountains


  January February March April May June July August September October November December
2001
1.99
.48
.85
1.90
.22
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
2000
.08
.66
1.14
.04
.00
3.76
2.55
5.08
1.12
9.16
1.98
.26
1999
.00
.05
.32
1.54
.00
.94
5.90
4.10
1.60
.00
.00
.03
Normal
1.24
1.19
.94
.44
.20
.73
4.40
4.08
1.69
1.05
.85
1.40


                                                  Santa Rita Experimental Range (North of Sonoita)  

  January February March April May June July August September October November December
2001
2.55
.68
.48
2.86
1.00
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
2000
.20
.70
1.60
.00
.00
.00
1.70
4.80
1.81
7.87
3.19
.12
1999
.10
.00
.10
3.11
.00
.21
8.49
6.37
2.39
.00
.00
.00
Normal
1.63
1.45
1.56
.65
.23
.64
4.82
4.34
2.17
1.68
1.16
1.94



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